Projected Standings
Projected 2026 records. 2026 has not kicked off yet, so ratings come from 2026 net EPA per play, converted to a per-game point margin and run through the real schedule. Home field is worth two points.
How it works
These are expected wins, not simulated ones. 4 means the schedule is worth about nine and a half wins to that roster.
| # | Team | Proj W | Proj L | Rating | Off EPA | Def EPA | RZ TD% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Jaguars | 11.8 | 5.2 | +9.9 | 0.148 | -0.128 | 62.5% | |
| 2 |  49ers | 11.5 | 5.5 | +9.0 | 0.180 | -0.073 | 85.2% | |
| 3 |  Chiefs | 10.9 | 6.1 | +7.1 | 0.131 | -0.067 | 63.3% | |
| 4 |  Bills | 10.2 | 6.8 | +5.3 | 0.141 | -0.010 | 64.7% | |
| 5 |  Bengals | 10.1 | 6.9 | +4.9 | 0.142 | 0.005 | 65.6% | |
| 6 |  Rams | 10.1 | 6.9 | +5.7 | 0.041 | -0.111 | 66.7% | |
| 7 |  Packers | 9.7 | 7.3 | +4.2 | 0.038 | -0.076 | 54.3% | |
| 8 |  Bears | 9.4 | 7.6 | +3.2 | 0.037 | -0.049 | 54.1% | |
| 9 |  Texans | 9.3 | 7.7 | +2.0 | 0.060 | 0.003 | 58.1% | |
| 10 |  Buccaneers | 9.2 | 7.8 | +2.1 | -0.107 | -0.164 | 50.0% | |
| 11 |  Steelers | 9.2 | 7.8 | +1.6 | -0.027 | -0.074 | 48.0% | |
| 12 |  Giants | 9.1 | 7.9 | +1.1 | 0.003 | -0.030 | 62.5% | |
| 13 |  Seahawks | 9.0 | 8.0 | +2.0 | -0.040 | -0.097 | 53.6% | |
| 14 |  Lions | 8.8 | 8.2 | +0.7 | 0.102 | 0.080 | 61.8% | |
| 15 |  Panthers | 8.7 | 8.3 | +0.4 | 0.042 | 0.030 | 65.5% | |
| 16 |  Cowboys | 8.6 | 8.4 | +0.1 | 0.097 | 0.091 | 67.6% | |
| 17 |  Patriots | 8.3 | 8.7 | -0.1 | 0.041 | 0.043 | 53.8% | |
| 18 |  Jets | 8.3 | 8.7 | -1.4 | 0.003 | 0.039 | 38.5% | |
| 19 |  Broncos | 8.2 | 8.8 | -0.3 | -0.014 | -0.008 | 65.4% | |
| 20 |  Vikings | 8.2 | 8.8 | -0.5 | -0.162 | -0.149 | 50.0% | |
| 21 |  Ravens | 8.1 | 8.9 | -1.3 | -0.015 | 0.017 | 59.3% | |
| 22 |  Commanders | 8.0 | 9.0 | -2.0 | -0.029 | 0.024 | 54.5% | |
| 23 |  Browns | 7.7 | 9.3 | -2.5 | -0.084 | -0.020 | 40.9% | |
| 24 |  Saints | 7.5 | 9.5 | -3.2 | -0.037 | 0.050 | 65.5% | |
| 25 |  Raiders | 7.3 | 9.7 | -4.1 | -0.015 | 0.092 | 51.4% | |
| 26 |  Falcons | 7.2 | 9.8 | -2.9 | -0.073 | 0.002 | 61.5% | |
| 27 |  Cardinals | 7.0 | 10.0 | -4.2 | -0.036 | 0.073 | 44.1% | |
| 28 |  Titans | 6.8 | 10.2 | -5.7 | -0.088 | 0.069 | 52.2% | |
| 29 |  Dolphins | 6.2 | 10.8 | -6.5 | -0.064 | 0.116 | 50.0% | |
| 30 |  Colts | 6.1 | 10.9 | -7.6 | -0.125 | 0.075 | 58.3% | |
| 31 |  Eagles | 5.7 | 11.3 | -8.8 | -0.146 | 0.084 | 68.2% | |
| 32 |  Chargers | 5.5 | 11.5 | -9.0 | -0.245 | 0.003 | 47.4% |