Red Zone Regression

84. 15. The gap between the two is therefore mostly luck, and mostly comes back, which makes the difference between how often a player was handed the ball inside the 20 and how often he actually scored one of the few genuinely predictive things in fantasy football.

How it works

3 touchdowns per 100 red zone touches, 2026.

Due to score more

Heavy red zone usage, few touchdowns. Buy.

Player	Tm	Touches	TD	Exp	Diff
Tyler AllgeierRB	ARI	23	1	4.4	-3.4
Mike Washington Jr.RB	LV	17	0	3.3	-3.3
Braelon AllenRB	NYJ	21	1	4.1	-3.1
Ashton JeantyRB	LV	34	4	6.6	-2.6
Tyler GoodsonRB	DAL	13	0	2.5	-2.5
Chase BrownRB	CIN	17	1	3.3	-2.3
Kaelon BlackRB	SF	12	0	2.3	-2.3
Bijan RobinsonRB	ATL	32	4	6.2	-2.2
Jaylen WarrenRB	PIT	16	1	3.1	-2.1
Denzel BostonWR	CLE	11	0	2.1	-2.1
Michael WilsonWR	ARI	20	2	3.9	-1.9
Woody MarksRB	HOU	20	2	3.9	-1.9
Tony PollardRB	TEN	30	4	5.8	-1.8
Kenneth Walker IIIRB	KC	44	7	8.5	-1.5
Emanuel WilsonRB	SEA	18	2	3.5	-1.5
Roschon JohnsonRB	CHI	13	1	2.5	-1.5
Pierre StrongRB	GB	8	0	1.5	-1.5
Quinshon JudkinsRB	CLE	23	3	4.4	-1.4
Kalif RaymondWR	CHI	7	0	1.4	-1.4
Kendrick BourneWR	ARI	7	0	1.4	-1.4
Travis EtienneRB	NO	7	0	1.4	-1.4
De'Von AchaneRB	MIA	7	0	1.4	-1.4
Jeremiyah LoveRB	ARI	17	2	3.3	-1.3
Josh JacobsRB	GB	17	2	3.3	-1.3
Jayden DanielsQB	WAS	6	0	1.2	-1.2
KC ConcepcionWR	CLE	6	0	1.2	-1.2
Justin HerbertQB	LAC	6	0	1.2	-1.2
Ollie Gordon IIRB	MIA	27	4	5.2	-1.2
Cade OttonTE	TB	6	0	1.2	-1.2
Ja'Kobi LaneWR	BAL	6	0	1.2	-1.2

Due to score less

Scored far above their usage. Sell.

Player	Tm	Touches	TD	Exp	Diff
Josh AllenQB	BUF	18	8	3.5	+4.5
Christian McCaffreyRB	SF	32	10	6.2	+3.8
Stefon DiggsWR	WAS	6	5	1.2	+3.8
Pat FreiermuthTE	PIT	7	5	1.4	+3.6
Tee HigginsWR	CIN	8	5	1.5	+3.5
Isaiah LikelyTE	NYG	11	5	2.1	+2.9
Jake FergusonTE	DAL	6	4	1.2	+2.8
Javonte WilliamsRB	DAL	43	11	8.3	+2.7
Brock BowersTE	LV	12	5	2.3	+2.7
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR	SEA	13	5	2.5	+2.5
Jameson WilliamsWR	DET	8	4	1.5	+2.5
Kyle PittsTE	ATL	8	4	1.5	+2.5
Brian RobinsonRB	ATL	8	4	1.5	+2.5
Juwan JohnsonTE	NO	9	4	1.7	+2.3
Puka NacuaWR	LA	15	5	2.9	+2.1
Chuba HubbardRB	CAR	26	7	5.0	+2.0
Drake MayeQB	NE	6	3	1.2	+1.8
Tyler WarrenTE	IND	6	3	1.2	+1.8
George KittleTE	SF	12	4	2.3	+1.7
Christian WatsonWR	GB	7	3	1.4	+1.6
Davante AdamsWR	LA	7	3	1.4	+1.6
Nico CollinsWR	HOU	7	3	1.4	+1.6
Devaughn VeleWR	NO	7	3	1.4	+1.6
Cody WhiteWR	LV	7	3	1.4	+1.6
Justin JeffersonWR	MIN	8	3	1.5	+1.5
T.J. HockensonTE	MIN	8	3	1.5	+1.5
Emeka EgbukaWR	TB	8	3	1.5	+1.5
James CookRB	BUF	35	8	6.8	+1.2
CeeDee LambWR	DAL	20	5	3.9	+1.1
Joe BurrowQB	CIN	10	3	1.9	+1.1

A caution worth stating: this measures opportunity against outcome, not talent. A player can score below his usage because he is genuinely poor near the goal line, and a tight end can beat it three years running. The gap regresses on average, which is a statement about the population and not a promise about any one player.