Fantasy Rankings

2026 rankings in all three scoring formats, ordered by value over replacement rather than raw points. Projections regress 2026 per-game scoring toward a positional baseline by games played, then apply an ageing factor measured within player (the same man a year older) because average points by age says receivers peak at 30, which is only true of the ones still good enough to start.

How it works

Rookies are projected from draft position over the 2016-2024 classes. 15, so a player's own volume is trusted, his efficiency is pulled toward the league average, and the result is scaled by what his team is projected to throw and run. 37. Season totals are that rate times the games a player is expected to play rather than a flat seventeen, which almost nobody reaches. That alone cuts the error on a season projection by nearly a third. Current injuries reduce expected games rather than per-game scoring, since that is the mechanism the backtest supported. Projections are then blended with the FantasyPros expert consensus, lightly at the top of the board where the model already agrees within about four positional spots and more heavily in the deep tiers where it is weakest and reliably the more optimistic of the two. The Model column shows what the model said on its own.

One point per reception. Switching format is not a rescaling. It reorders the board, because a possession receiver’s value is mostly catches and a runner’s is mostly yards. Consensus is the FantasyPros redraft rank at the same position, shown for comparison and never used in the projection.

#	Player	Pos	Tm	Proj	Model	Exp G	VOR	Vol/g	Team pass	Depth	Consensus
1	Jahmyr Gibbs	RB1	DET	263.5	264	14	+142.7	20.6	1.00×	RB1	RB1
2	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	WR1	SEA	250.0	250	14	+129.4	9.6	1.00×	WR1	WR1
3	Bijan Robinson	RB2	ATL	237.1	242	14	+116.3	21.5	0.98×	RB1	RB4▲2
4	Ja'Marr Chase	WR2	CIN	234.0	237	14	+113.4	10.0	1.01×	WR1	WR4▲2
5	Puka Nacua	WR3	LA	224.9	223	11	+104.3	11.2	1.04×	WR1	WR2▼1
6	Trey McBride	TE1	ARI	206.5	218	14	+92.3	9.1	1.05×	TE1	TE3▲2
7	Amon-Ra St. Brown	WR4	DET	211.1	215	14	+90.5	9.5	1.00×	WR1	WR5▲1
8	Kyren Williams	RB3	LA	208.2	210	14	+87.4	19.2	1.04×	RB1	RB8▲5
9	Javonte Williams	RB4	DAL	197.7	198	14	+76.9	18.2	1.04×	RB1	RB5▲1
10	CeeDee Lamb	WR5	DAL	195.8	191	12	+75.2	10.3	1.04×	WR1	WR3▼2
11	Chase Brown	RB5	CIN	195.4	198	14	+74.6	17.9	1.01×	RB1	RB9▲4
12	Brock Bowers	TE2	LV	188.3	183	12	+74.1	7.9	1.03×	TE1	TE1▼1
13	Jonathan Taylor	RB6	IND	193.8	198	14	+73.0	21.2	1.02×	RB1	RB12▲6
14	James Cook	RB7	BUF	193.2	196	14	+72.4	19.9	0.97×	RB1	RB10▲3
15	Ashton Jeanty	RB8	LV	192.5	217	14	+71.7	18.9	1.03×	RB1	RB21▲13
16	Christian McCaffrey	RB9	SF	187.7	178	12	+66.9	20.6	0.97×	RB1	RB2▼7
17	Josh Allen	QB1	BUF	280.5	286	14	+66.1	6.3	0.97×	QB1	QB2▲1
18	Bucky Irving	RB10	TB	181.4	183	12	+60.6	19.8	0.97×	RB1	RB11▲1
19	Kenneth Walker III	RB11	KC	178.7	172	12	+57.9	18.4	0.99×	RB1	RB3▼8
20	Chris Olave	WR6	NO	177.6	179	12	+57.0	9.2	1.02×	WR1	WR10▲4
21	D'Andre Swift	RB12	CHI	177.8	174	14	+57.0	19.2	1.02×	RB1	RB7▼5
22	Drake London	WR7	ATL	174.9	174	12	+54.3	8.4	0.98×	WR1	WR6▼1
23	Justin Jefferson	WR8	MIN	173.7	173	14	+53.1	8.0	0.96×	WR1	WR7▼1
24	Zay Flowers	WR9	BAL	167.6	179	14	+47.0	7.8	0.98×	WR1	WR21▲12
25	Tetairoa McMillan	WR10	CAR	163.4	170	12	+42.8	8.1	1.02×	WR1	WR17▲7
26	Tony Pollard	RB13	TEN	160.4	-	14	+39.6	17.6	0.98×	RB1	-
27	Quinshon Judkins	RB14	CLE	158.6	166	12	+37.8	18.3	1.00×	RB1	RB19▲5
28	Wan'Dale Robinson	WR11	TEN	153.8	-	14	+33.2	7.1	0.98×	WR2	-
29	Joe Burrow	QB2	CIN	246.0	239	12	+31.6	2.7	1.01×	QB1	QB1▼1
30	Josh Jacobs	RB15	GB	152.1	149	11	+31.3	18.3	1.04×	RB1	RB15
31	Nico Collins	WR12	HOU	151.1	150	12	+30.5	7.9	1.00×	WR1	WR12
32	Drake Maye	QB3	NE	244.9	249	14	+30.5	5.0	1.00×	QB1	QB7▲4
33	Chuba Hubbard	RB16	CAR	150.5	142	12	+29.7	16.8	1.02×	RB1	RB6▼10
34	Luther Burden III	WR13	CHI	149.7	148	12	+29.1	7.0	1.02×	WR1	WR14▲1
35	Jameson Williams	WR14	DET	149.1	153	14	+28.5	6.0	1.00×	WR2	WR20▲6
36	Christian Watson	WR15	GB	148.1	146	12	+27.5	7.2	1.04×	WR1	WR13▼2
37	Breece Hall	RB17	NYJ	146.9	161	12	+26.1	18.3	0.99×	RB1	RB27▲10
38	Jordan Love	QB4	GB	240.1	244	14	+25.7	2.5	1.04×	QB1	QB11▲7
39	Travis Kelce	TE3	KC	139.8	142	14	+25.6	6.3	0.99×	TE1	TE8▲5
40	Tyler Warren	TE4	IND	139.8	142	12	+25.6	6.7	1.02×	TE1	TE6▲2
41	Derrick Henry	RB18	BAL	146.3	150	14	+25.5	19.9	0.98×	RB1	RB20▲2
42	Tee Higgins	WR16	CIN	145.7	141	12	+25.1	7.0	1.01×	WR2	WR9▼7
43	Denzel Boston	WR17	CLE	143.4	155	12	+22.8	7.5	1.00×	WR1	WR29▲12
44	George Kittle	TE5	SF	136.4	128	12	+22.2	5.9	0.97×	TE1	TE2▼3
45	Harold Fannin Jr.	TE6	CLE	135.1	137	12	+20.9	6.1	1.00×	TE1	TE9▲3
46	Bo Nix	QB5	DEN	234.6	250	14	+20.2	4.4	1.00×	QB1	QB17▲12
47	Bhayshul Tuten	RB19	JAX	140.5	136	12	+19.7	14.1	0.97×	RB1	RB17▼2
48	Josh Downs	WR18	IND	139.9	158	14	+19.3	7.0	1.02×	WR1	WR38▲20
49	Parker Washington	WR19	JAX	139.8	135	12	+19.2	6.5	0.97×	WR1	WR16▼3
50	Jaylen Waddle	WR20	DEN	139.4	141	14	+18.8	6.8	1.00×	WR1	WR23▲3

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